The final results of the New Hampshire primary show Mitt Romney with, as predicted, a major win in the Granite State. Romney took 39% of the vote, with 95,669 votes. Rep. Ron Paul placed second, with 23% of the vote. Former Ambassador Jon Huntsman placed third, with 17%. Newt Gingrich and Sen. Rick Santorum rounded out the top five, with Gov. Rick Perry, who did not campaign in New Hampshire, far back in 6th place.
As some sources placed Romney’s own internal polling, he needed 35% of the vote to consider it a strong victory. He exceeded that, creating distance between himself and Paul, who he beat by over 40,000 votes. Also of interest is his high amount of Tea Party support in New Hampshire. According to CNN, 40% of self-identified Tea Party members supported Romney in the primary.
However, it is simply premature to call the race now for Romney. It is also premature for the Paul team to request that everyone but him and Romney gets out of the race. Paul had a strong team in Iowa, and his economic message resonates in NH.
The same can not be said of Paul in South Carolina. In the latest Public Policy Polling poll in South Carolina, Romney leads with 27%, Gingrich has 23%, Santorum has 18%. Rep. Paul is at 8%, closely followed by Perry at 7%. Amb. Huntsman is at 4%, trailing comic and television host Stephen Colbert amongst voters.
The conventional thinking is that if Romney wins South Carolina, he runs the table. The southern strategy of Gingirch, Santorum and Perry would be left in shreds, as the momentum would be with Romney, and the message would become about party unity. But South Carolina can decide to rely more on its Southern “values,” which would give Gingrich and Santorum a chance to build momentum over the next two weeks.
What also might move South Carolina is the big victory for Romney and the second place finish for Paul in New Hampshire; the trend showing Romney as the two-time winner, and Paul on the upswing. As they say, the race is on, and South Carolina may very well decide the future of this race.
